Expected payment period is a period of time that is calculated on the basis of data provided by statistical bodies and used, the size of which depends on its value.

The funded pension is provided to insured citizens born in 1967 and later, who have contributions to a current account in a state or non-state pension fund (PF). Provision for this type of deductions is made after reaching retirement age in an amount calculated on the basis of Rosstat data and developed by the Government of the Russian Federation.

Types of pension savings payments

Funded pension- a sum of money formed from contributions made by the employer, additional insurance contributions at the initiative of citizens, funds transferred by the state under the Pension Co-financing Program.

According to Article 2 of Law No. 360-FZ of November 30, 2011 “On the procedure for financing payments from pension savings” exist the following types accrual data:

• One-time- issuance of all savings reflected in the citizen’s account. The following are entitled to receive this type of accrual:
  • Persons who do not receive old-age insurance benefits due to a short insurance period or a low number of pension points.
  • Persons who receive disability or survivors' insurance benefits.
  • The amount of savings is from 5% and lower in comparison with the old-age insurance pension, taking into account fixed charges and the amount of the savings benefit.

  Insured persons who received pension savings as a lump sum payment have the right to apply for a re-issue of funds five years from the date of the previous application. Such payments are not made to persons who previously received a funded pension.

• Urgent- paid monthly for the period established by the insured person (at least 10 years). Receiving this type of accrual is provided to persons whose savings are formed through:
  • Participation in the Savings Co-financing Program (personally, by the employer and (or) state contributions).
  • Transfer of all or part of the funds received from maternity capital.

  In the event of the death of the insured person, the legal successor has the right to receive the remaining funds ( maternal capital- only the father or children upon reaching adulthood).

• Cumulative - paid monthly for the rest of the recipient's life.

How is the size of a funded pension determined?

In accordance with Article 7 "About funded pensions" its size depends on the amount of funds accumulated in a special part of the citizen’s personal account or in a pension account on the day the benefit is assigned.

Size of this type pension provision is formed by dividing the amount of funds accumulated in the account of the insured person by the number of months of the entire period of deductions (as of January 1, 2016, assigned by federal law based on official statistical data on life expectancy). Thus, the formula for the calculation is as follows:

NP = PN / T,

• PN - the amount of pension savings on the day of appointment;
• T - expected payment period.

Its size may be adjusted in the following cases:

• As a result of investing the savings reserve
• Amounts of receipts that were not taken into account when calculating accruals or in previous adjustments.

Recalculation (adjustment) occurs once a year - on August 1 of the year without filing an application on the part of the insured person.

Methodology for estimating the expected payment period

On June 2, 2015, the government of the Russian Federation, by resolution No. 531, approved the methodology for the expected payment period necessary for calculating funded pension and adjusting its size. It is used by employees involved in compulsory pension insurance and provides a methodology for calculating accrual periods for citizens who are accrued an old-age insurance pension. Also this technique applies when changing the amount of accruals, or when assigning it later than acquiring the right to it.

When assigning a funded pension, the expected payment period is calculated using the formula:

T = (S i x e i + S j x e j / S i + S j) x 12,

• T- number of months of accrual;
• S i- number of men of retirement age;
• Sj- number of women of retirement age;
• e i- expected life expectancy of men of retirement age;
• e j- expected life expectancy of women of retirement age.

The number of men and women, as well as life expectancy, is determined according to statistical data.

After calculation, the obtained data is compared with the maximum value of the upcoming period of accruals for the period from 2016 to 2020. If the calculated period:

• greater than the maximum value, it is taken into account in the amount of the maximum value;
• is less than the maximum value, but exceeds the expected period established for the year preceding the year for which the assessment is made, of a given period, it is taken into account in the calculated amount;
• less than the maximum value, but not higher than the expected accrual period, it is taken into account in the amount provided for by federal law.

Maximum value for the period from 2016 to 2020

The maximum value of the OPV was calculated based on statistical data in order to exclude a sharp increase in the period of payment of pension savings due to fluctuations in the population of retirement age. This maximum is determined by the appendix to resolution No. 531:

Survival period for calculating pension in 2018

Survival period- the average life expectancy of a citizen after retirement established by the government and calculated based on statistical data (the time during which the pension is planned to be calculated). This concept is used to determine the amount of the assigned benefit, thus, the longer the survival period, the smaller its size.

Based on Rosstat data for 2016, the number of men of retirement age was 864,661, women - 1,222,988, and life expectancy - 16.08 and 25.79 years, respectively.

According to calculations made according to the Methodology, the expected period for 2018 was 261 months. Because given value above the maximum value established by the Methodology - 246 months, then to determine the size of the funded part this period payments were set at 246 months.

The period set annually by the government will be gradually increase until approaching current life expectancy values. It is assumed that these measures will make it possible to provide citizens with the right to a funded payment until they approach the real life expectancy of future recipients.

Law to increase the expected payment period in 2018

According to the law developed by the Ministry of Labor and social protection, “On the expected period of payment of funded pensions for 2018”, the survival period will be increased by six months and will be 246 months, instead of 240 installed in 2017. The actual expected period, according to calculations based on the developed Methodology for 2018, was 261 months.

This increase is explained by the need to continue to bring the standard value to real values, which currently exceeds the maximum permissible value by 21 months. As a result of increasing the accrual time, the benefit will decrease by about 20 rubles for newly assigned payments to pensioners, according to the Ministry of Labor.

It should be noted that if the real expected payment period were used to calculate the monthly amount of the funded pension, the amount of payments to the recipient would be even lower.

Reducing the payment period for late retirement

It is possible to reduce the duration of the expected accrual time; the data for this are established in parts 3-4 of Article 7 Federal Law No. 424-FZ dated December 28, 2013 "About funded pension."

In order to encourage later retirement, a system has been developed that will reduce the time of this period when accruing this part of the pension later than the establishment of the right to it.

• The the period is reduced by 12 months for each additional year that has expired from the date of receipt of the right to receive a pension benefit.
• In this case, the expected payment period, which is used to calculate the amount of the funded pension, cannot be less than 168 months, starting from 2015.

This rule also applies when cumulative payment, the right to which arose before achievement, begins at a later age.

If the calculated period:

• greater than the maximum value, it is taken into account in the amount of the maximum value;
• is less than the maximum value, but exceeds the expected period established for the year preceding the year for which the assessment is made, of a given period, it is taken into account in the calculated amount;
• less than the maximum value, but not higher than the expected accrual period, it is taken into account in the amount provided for by federal law.

Maximum value for the period from 2016 to 2020 The maximum value of OPV was calculated based on statistical data in order to exclude a sharp increase in the period for payment of pension savings due to fluctuations in the population of retirement age.

What period of survival should I use to calculate my pension in 2018?

This maximum is determined by the appendix to Resolution No. 531: Date on which OPV is established Expected payment period, in months From January 1, 2016 234 From January 1, 2017 240 From January 1, 2018 246 From January 1, 2019 252 From January 1, 2020 258 Survival period for calculation pensions in 2018 Survival period - the average lifespan of a citizen after retirement (the time during which the pension is planned to be calculated), established by the government and calculated from statistical data. This concept is used to determine the amount of the assigned benefit, thus, the longer the survival period, the smaller its size.

Based on Rosstat data for 2016, the number of men of retirement age was 864,661, women - 1,222,988, and life expectancy - 16.08 and 25.79 years, respectively.

Expected period for payment of pension savings

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Pension calculation Deflator coefficient for UTII The most commonly referred to value, denoted K1, is used to adjust the level of basic income various types activities. According to UTII, the deflator coefficient is set at 1,868 rubles.

Compared to the previous period, its level became higher by 3.4%.

Expected period of funded pension payments in 2018

The method of adjusting the size of pensions in a similar way has been applied throughout the ten years since the beginning of the pension reform. The Government of the Russian Federation uses this quiet, inconspicuous and not advertised parameter as a convenient regulator of the size of assigned pensions.
The table and graph show how the survival period set by the country's leadership has changed over the past ten years. Survival time in different years Year Start of application T (months) T (years) 2002 From 01/01/2002 144 12 2003 From 01/01/2003 150 12.5 2004 From 01/01/2004 156 13 2005 From 01/01/2005 162 13.5 2006 From 01.0 1.2006 168 14 2007 From 01/01/2007 174 14.5 2008 From 01/01/2008 180 15 2009 From 01/01/2009 186 15.5 2010 From 01/01/2010 192 16 2011 From 01/01/2011 20 4 17 2012 From 01/01/2012 216 18 2013 From 01/01 .2013 228 19 2014 From 01/01/2014 228 19 Comment 45-90.

Expected period for payment of funded pension

Simply put, even if the level of the physical indicator for the type of activity remains the same as K2, the imputed tax next year will become higher. Deflator coefficient for the patent system When used for the patent taxation system used by individual entrepreneurs, K1 increases the level of potential income for the last 12 months for existing types of business activity.

Attention

It is worth recalling that the starting value of the possible level of annual income of an individual entrepreneur is 1 million rubles, which corresponds to paragraph 7 of Article 346.43 of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation. Pension in 2018 Alexey Kudrin believes that the Pension Fund budget deficit will not allow an increase pension payments further.

• Nov. 1.

In Moscow and the region it will increase from January 2018 minimum size pensions will be increased to 17,500 rubles.

What is the survival period?

Info

Accrual example Alexander Kukushkin retires with the rank of captain and platoon commander. His salary is 31 thousand rubles. Service life exceeded by 2 years.

Which years are best to take to calculate your pension? The content of the article:

1. How to calculate old age pension?
2. Calculation example
3. Calculation of pensions for those born before 1967
4. Payment calculation example
5. Formula for calculating a military man's pension
6. Accrual example
7. Conclusion
8. The most popular question and answer regarding pension calculations
9. List of laws

Retiring and receiving a long-awaited pension are not always joyful events. Some Russian pensioners, according to their own estimates, receive rather low pension payments and often have no idea about their true size until the moment of registration of pension benefits.

How realistic are these survival times for Russian pensioners and how true are they? Let's look at the numbers. According to the estimates of European experts who conducted a comparative analysis of the life expectancy of pensioners in different countries, the life expectancy for men after retirement in our country is about 6 years, and for women – 11 years.
Since, according to Goskomstat, about 800 thousand men and 1,200 thousand women retire annually - about two million people in total - using these figures it is easy to calculate the average survival time for Russian pensioners (regardless of gender) using the so-called “weighted” formula » average: T survival = 6* (800,000 / 2,000,000) + 11* (1,200,000 / 2,000,000) = 9 years (!). There are other estimates based solely on the figures of the domestic State Statistics Committee - see.
article “How long do pensioners live?”

The period for paying funded pensions has been increased

Types of pension savings payments Savings pension is a sum of money formed from contributions made by the employer, additional insurance contributions at the initiative of citizens, funds transferred by the state under the Pension Co-financing Program. According to Article 2 of Law No. 360-FZ of November 30, 2011 “On the procedure for financing payments from pension savings”, there are the following types of these accruals:

• One-time - issuance of all savings reflected in the citizen’s account.

Survival rate in 2018

Important

It shows that the real life expectancy after retirement is 4-6 years for men, and 17-18 years for women. Applying the formula again to calculate the average age of an abstract “asexual” pensioner, we get more “optimistic” numbers T survival = 11.5 – 13 years.

Which estimate is more reliable? Most likely - the truth is somewhere in the middle - the real life expectancy of Russian pensioners is on average 12 years. As you can see, neither the first nor the second estimates, based on real statistical data, coincide with the virtual period of 19 years, which is assigned by the Government of the Russian Federation for “survival”.

Survival period in 2018

According to the data, the established life expectancy after retirement is 261 months or, according to Rosstat, 16.08 years for men and 25.79 years for women. Dear visitors of the “Pension Expert” portal! To quickly resolve your problems and questions, we recommend that you contact qualified practicing lawyers on social issues:

• For Moscow and the Moscow region: +7 499 703 14 65
• For St. Petersburg and Leningrad region: +7 812 309 54 03
• All-Russian toll-free number: +7 800 350 77 09

Applications and calls are accepted around the clock and seven days a week.

It was previously reported that the Government plans to gradually increase the indicator over several years - until 2020. Therefore, citizens entitled to a funded pension should expect a further increase.

Ask a question The government has approved a bill according to which the term for payment of funded pensions will be extended. In 2018 it will be 246 months (in 2017 – 240 months). Attention, get a free consultation!

• Moscow and region: +7 499 703 14 65
• St. Petersburg and region: +7 812 309 54 03
• All-Russian: +7 800 350 77 09

This value is used when calculating the monthly supplement from the funded pension for pensioners applying for old-age pensions in 2018. For example, if the savings portion is 35,000 rubles, then 142 rubles will be accrued monthly.
According to the Ministry of Labor, the adoption of the law is aimed at increasing the survival period to real values.

Survival period in 2018

The monthly as well as the total amount of funds for this type of pension directly depends on the maximum possible payment period, according to Government statistics. How to avoid reducing the amount monthly payments? The accumulative part due to work experience citizens of the Russian Federation under the reform program pension system should only increase.

1. What is the legal life expectancy in Russia?

1.1. Hello, according to the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of June 2, 2015 N 531 "On approval of the methodology for assessing the expected period of payment of a funded pension" from January 1, 2017, the survival period is 240 months.

2. Survival period for pensioners when assigned a preferential pension according to list No. 2 from 04/04/2014.

2.1. Hello.

Best wishes.

3. Survival period for granting a pension according to list No. 2 from 04/04/2014.

3.1. Hello.
Before 2013, it was 240 months; in 2014, the survival age for pensioners with early accrual of pensions became 252 months.
Best wishes.

4. Went to early retirement in 2008, continued to work until September 2016, has my survival period increased to receive the funded part of the pension and for how long?

4.1. The expected period for payment of a funded pension, used to calculate its size, is established every year by Federal Law, and for 2019 it is 252 months.

5. When applying to the Pension Fund for payment of the funded part of the pension, employees filled out the form incorrectly. Instead of urgent payments for 10 years, they put indefinite payments, that is, for the period of survival. I do not like it. Is it possible to refuse such payments and rewrite the application for urgent payments, i.e. for 120 months.

5.1. Good afternoon

The form to fill out is statement established form.
Lyudmila, I draw your attention to the fact that an application for an urgent payment and an application for a funded pension are two different applications. Therefore, the Pension Fund did not fill out the form incorrectly, but filled out the wrong form for you.
However, you had to read everything and only sign the application.
The following is important here:
1) if you have additional insurance premiums (DSV?
if there is a DWI, then you had the right to fill out an application for an urgent payment.
2) how complete information did you receive from the Pension Fund employee, including whether it was possible that the employee misled you?

If you have a DWI, you thought that a PFR employee was helping you fill out an application specifically for an urgent payment, but in fact it turned out to be an application for a funded pension, and without paying attention to this, you signed it, you can write to the PFR claim, outlining all the circumstances, and then react in accordance with the response from the Pension Fund.

6. My husband retired in 2019 on a preferential list at the age of 50. To receive the funded part at a time was denied due to exceeding the 5% limit. What period of calculation is taken in our case when calculating the survival period?

6.1. Good afternoon

The expected period for payment of a funded pension, used to calculate its size, for 2019 is established by Federal Law dated December 25, 2018 N 476-FZ, with a duration of 252 months.

At the same time, to calculate the funded pension for persons who have been assigned an old-age pension ahead of schedule,
The funded pension is determined for 2019 based on the above-established expected period for payment of the funded pension, which annually starting January 1, 2013 ( from January 1 of the corresponding year) increases by one year. Moreover, the total number of years of such an increase cannot exceed the number of years missing upon the onset of the right to receive a funded pension before reaching the ages of 60 and 55 years (men and women, respectively). (Clause 2, Article 17 of the Federal Law “On Funded Pension”.
Thus, 252 months + N number of months are involved in the calculation. The Pension Fund of Russia has its own interpretation of clause 2. Article 17 of the Law. There are several positions of interpretation of this norm.
I recommend asking the Pension Fund for information about the calculation, then checking it, and if you do not agree, appealing in court.

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7.1. You need to read the documents.

8. Retired in 2013, at age 56, using northern benefits. They applied the survival period to 240 months, although it should have been 228. Today I was at the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation and they told me that it was because I left earlier.

8.1. Good afternoon Anatoly, you were told correctly, starting from 2013, when early (preferential) pensions are assigned, the expected payment period increases by one year. (Clause 2 of Article 32 of Federal Law No. 173-FZ).

9. I am a working pensioner, I have been participating in the co-financing program since 2013, savings part I haven’t received a pension, I transfer 12 thousand annually. I am worried about the increase in survival time every year. How will this increase affect the calculation of the funded pension?

9.1. Good afternoon, Olga Nikolaevna!

If you are assigned insurance pension in old age (including early) you already have the right to receive a funded pension.

Since you are a participant in the co-financing program, You have the right to apply for an immediate pension payment, which is carried out to insured persons who have formed pension savings through additional insurance contributions for a funded pension, employer contributions, contributions for co-financing the formation of pension savings, income from their investment, funds (part of the funds) of maternity (family) capital aimed at the formation of a funded pension, income from their investment, if the right to establish an old-age insurance pension arises (including early) (Clause 1, Article 5 of the Federal Law of November 30, 2011 N 360-FZ “On the procedure for financing payments from pension savings”

The amount of immediate pension payment is determined by the formula:

SP = PN / T,

Where SP is the amount of immediate pension payment;
PN - the amount of pension savings formed from additional insurance contributions for a funded pension, employer contributions, contributions for co-financing the formation of pension savings, income from their investment, funds (part of the funds) of maternity (family) capital aimed at the formation of a funded pension, income from their investment...

T - the number of months of the period for payment of an urgent pension payment, indicated in the application of the insured person for the assignment of an urgent pension payment, which cannot be less than 120 months (10 years).

If You will exercise your right to receive an immediate pension payment, in the application for an urgent pension payment (approved form), you fill out the line:

“I ask you to appoint an urgent pension payment, payable within...
[b] (indicate the number of months of the period of payment of the fixed-term pension payment)

Thus, you establish a period of immediate pension payment, which must be at least 10 years.

The so-called survival period - T, officially called the expected period of payment of the old-age labor pension, is the most important parameter that directly determines the size of the pension for all categories of citizens without exception.

The size of the monthly pension (more precisely, the insurance part of the old-age labor pension) for those who were born before 1967 and do not have a funded part is determined by the formula:

Pension = PC / T + B,

Where

PC- pension capital “earned” by a citizen for the entire period of his working activity;

T- the number of months of the expected period of payment of the old-age labor pension - the period of survival used to calculate the amount of the pension;

B- fixed base amount of the insurance part of the old-age labor pension.

It is clear that the longer the survival period is set, the smaller the monthly pension will be. The method of adjusting the size of pensions in a similar way has been applied throughout the ten years since the beginning of the pension reform. The Government of the Russian Federation uses this quiet, inconspicuous and not advertised parameter as a convenient regulator of the size of assigned pensions. The table and graph show how the survival period set by the country's leadership has changed over the past ten years.

Survival times in different years
	Start of use	T(month)	T (years)

Comment 45-90.

How realistic are these survival times for Russian pensioners and how true are they? Let's look at the numbers.

According to the estimates of European experts who conducted a comparative analysis of the life expectancy of pensioners in different countries, the life expectancy of men after retirement in our country is about 6 years, and for women - 11 years.

Since, according to the State Statistics Committee, about 800 thousand men and 1,200 thousand women retire annually - about two million people in total, using these figures it is easy to calculate average survival time for Russian pensioners(regardless of gender) according to the formula of the so-called “weighted” average:

T of survival = 6* (800,000 / 2,000,000) + 11* (1,200,000 / 2,000,000) = 9 years (!).

There are other estimates based solely on the figures of the domestic State Statistics Committee - see the article “”. It shows that the real life expectancy after retirement is 4-6 years for men, and 17-18 years for women. Applying the formula again to calculate the average age of an abstract “asexual” pensioner, we get more “optimistic” figures

T survival = 11.5 - 13 years.

Which estimate is more reliable? Most likely, the truth is somewhere in the middle - the real life expectancy of Russian pensioners on averageis 12 years old.

As you can see, neither the first nor the second estimates, based on real statistical data, coincide with the virtual period - 19 years, which is assigned by the Government of the Russian Federation for “survival”. Moreover, in the strategy for the development of the pension system of the Russian Federation until 2030, in section III (chapter “Improving the system for the formation of pension rights in the distribution component of the pension system”) the following is stated - quote:

“...it is proposed to bring the indicators of the expected period of payment of the old-age labor pension into line with the actual (statistical) life expectancy of the corresponding ages. It is planned to gradually increase the expected period of payment of the old-age labor pension, used to calculate the insurance part of the old-age labor pension, from 19 years (228 months) in 2013 to 21 years(252 months) in 2015, based on the increase in the average life expectancy of a recipient of an old-age labor pension. At the same time, starting from 2016, it is proposed to establish the duration of the expected period of pension payment based on statistical duration. »

This begs the question: What statistical duration are we talking about? Is it planned to establish real, rather than fictitious, survival dates starting from 2016? It is good to…

In conclusion, we will show in numbers - how long it lasts - T affects the size of pensions. For example, let’s take a citizen retiring in 2013 ( B= 3610 rubles 31 kopecks). Let his pension capital earned during his working life be 1,200,000 rubles. Let's calculate the size of his pension using the formula given at the beginning of the article. Calculation results for different terms survival rates are shown in the table and graph.

Survival time T doge (years)	Pension
12	11 944
12,5	11 610
13	11 303
13,5	11 018
14	10 753
14,5	10 507
15	10 277
15,5	10 062
16	9 860
17	9 493
18	9 166
19	8 873
20	8 610
21	8 372

Let's compare the size of the pension calculated for the real (from our point of view) survival period - 12 years, with the size of the pension calculated for the virtual, invented by the Government (from our point of view) survival period - 19 years.

This is what modern statistics call the age period a person enters at the time of retirement. I don't think there would be big difference, call it “On the Last Journey.” The survival period (survival period) is established normatively, this norm is taken into account in the calculations of future pensions.

It was not at all like that in the Soviet Union - live as long as you want, as long as the country works, your pension is guaranteed. And people didn’t even retire, but well-deserved rest. Which is great. A feeling of temporary space appears, new life plans arise, and there is a sense of readiness to do a lot more in this life.

It is completely different for those who will not retire soon, but after some time, when the period of final departure from the solidary pension model and the implementation of the personalized funded project ends. They will leave... live out their lives.

Survival age is for personalized savings model pension provision is a key factor influencing the size future pension, but not on a budget pension fund. IN solidary However, the models do not have these categories at all, as they are unnecessary.

The key factor when solidarity model pension provision are indicators of employment of the working-age population and how its number relates to the number of pensioners. The impact on the pension fund budget here is significant. In contrast to the personalized savings model, in which the budget does not care how many able-bodied people work in a given period - how much each person saves for himself will be received accordingly. Well, unless the insurer [whom you entrusted to manage your savings through the pension fund] by that time does not lose this money along the way, on unsuccessful investments, in the pursuit of interest, this happens.

In light of the above, I hope it becomes clear that all the talk that the motive for reform is approaching the “demographic hole” is lies.

No, it’s not a lie that the pit doesn’t exist. There is like hello from the "saints of the 90s". And then there are the lies that the generation born, excuse me, “in the pit,” supposedly will have to provide pensions for the baby boomers of the Brezhnev “era of stagnation,” and this, they say, will become impossible because of such a bad disproportion.

Nothing like this!

Because demographic disproportions only have an impact under the conditions of the solidarity model. In our case, when the last Soviet baby boomers approach their, excuse me, age of survival, the solidarity model of pension provision will already dissolve into history, and its remnants in the form of the insurance part of the needs of the pension budget associated with obligations to the last surviving “solidarists” will be so insignificant that the state (and the social state in particular) is ashamed to complain about the lack of people of working age to provide this budget.

Once again, briefly. When they lie to us that pension reform is necessary because there is a demographic hole ahead and there is no way around it, then the only truth is that the demographic hole does exist. About the inevitability of pushing back the retirement age bar - a thick fat lie, mixed with the substitution of concepts.

It's like about a cross and panties. Either pensions are based on the solidarity model, and then the demographic gap is still a factor, or, if you switch to personalized funded pensions, don’t blame the pitfalls, because everyone is the architect of their own pension.

And if you weren’t a good blacksmith, get your minimum in the form of an insurance pension and thank God, the state and the people for taking care of you, even if you’ve been screwing around all your life or, due to your greed, preferred to earn money illegally.

The fundamental abandonment of the solidarity model in favor of a personalized funded fund occurred a long time ago and almost unnoticed (even the scandals with the failures of the first non-state pension funds, in which investors’ money was covered with a copper basin, passed without loud publicity in the media), and in meaning it is related to Chubais’s privatization - " yes, illegal, yes, even for a penny, even for nothing, just to put a nail in the coffin of communism" (it sounded something like that, right?).

There will be no turning back, this is already clear. Business convinced everyone that this was good. And for some reason everyone understood that it would be good for everyone. And not just for business.

Now, in more detail, about the difference and what it consists of.

A pension fund formed according to a personalized savings model is an investment resource. This is interesting for business. And where there is business interest, there is no talk of humanism. Humanitarian ideals are always in conflict with economic interests - I outlined this and how to overcome this conflict in another essay (see “The Economy of Goats”).

A pension fund formed according to the solidarity model does not allow managing money as an investment resource due to its rapidity: coming from the working generation, it is immediately paid to the non-working generation. For a business, watching so much money flow away is unbearable: this money does not make new money, while, according to all the canons of business, liquid assets should work, bringing economic benefits.

That is, as usual, business wants to hold on to these funds and “spin” them for their own benefit. Which is objectively impossible under the solidary model.

I usually explain the difference metaphorically:

Solidarity principle of pension provision, it is like a river - on the one hand, it continuously fills, and on the other, it nourishes all living things.

In fact, for a pensioner, both future and present, there is no difference - at the end of the day, even with the solidarity model, he receives more, because the salary of the current generation of workers is higher than what current pensioners received at one time. Consequently, insurance contributions to the Pension Fund are higher, and pensions are higher accordingly.

Although there is a difference, yes, and not in favor of the personalized savings model. Because in the joint delta it is always adequate to the current level of income, but in the personalized delta it is only within the limits of how much your money earned when you participated in investment projects. Of course, minus the share due to the fund holder.

Now about what we have in practice.

Currently, the pension system in our country is going through a transition period. At the entrance, it works as a personalized savings account - insurance contributions to the pension fund transferred by the employer no longer form a general fund in a single account, but are credited to the personal personal accounts of the insured persons (according to information from the employer). And at the end, it represents the same solidary model - money is not used as an investment resource, future pensioners do not earn interest so that their savings grow by retirement (otherwise, why invest today’s money if tomorrow this amount will become inadequate to the market condition and they won’t cost anything anymore) - they go to pay pensions for today’s generation of pensioners.

This is how we live: we invest personally, and we make payments jointly. And we call it a “mixed system”.

And this is where our reformers have a big problem. As we move from the solidary model to the funded one, the fund naturally flows into the funded sector due to a decrease in the solidary one, which consists of the insurance part. In other words, of all current revenues to the Pension Fund, an increasing part is diverted to the savings sector, and this money is not supposed to be spent on current pension payments, it should be invested - given to the business for growth.

And, since, on the one hand, pensioners are not dying out as quickly as it would be economically feasible, and on the other hand, today’s working generation has almost entirely entered into the accumulation model, then over the next 5 - 10 years, as they approach their the survival age of the last ones who were born before 1967 (i.e., everyone who is not interested in accumulative problems, because upon retirement they will receive it the old fashioned way - from the solidarity pot), the solidarity fund... well, it’s impossible to say, that will be exhausted to zero, but will already actively strive towards zero.

It was this imbalance that Medvedev spoke about, slyly blaming the government’s reform miscalculations on the “demographic hole.”

Dmitry Medvedev, June 14, 2018: " But the demographic situation is such that the proportion of working people is becoming less and less, and, accordingly, there are more and more pensioners. Every year this imbalance will only grow - and, consequently, the burden on those who work ".

I just want to correct the head of the Government: It is you, Dmitry Anatolyevich, who has a cash imbalance, and not a demographic one. And yes, it will continue to grow.

Creating new jobs, which bloggers talk about so much, will not help here. All new jobs, as soon as they are occupied - and they will most likely be occupied by those born not before 1967, but by younger people - will give the pension fund an influx of the same personalized contributions, the lion's share of which will go to the funded part. Which is not enough for current payments! It is possible and necessary only for investment purposes, i.e. business for scrolling, as long-term money so desired for business. The smallest amount will end up in the insurance section; it will not save Russian democracy.

It will be another matter if twenty-five million new jobs are created. By the way, we were promised to create them by 2020.

We have set a goal to create and modernize 25 million jobs by 2020. This is a very ambitious and difficult task, but we can solve it.

And since then this thesis has been repeated many times. So, “the work from hell” will “be done and is already being done”?

It would be nice to have some statistics here (if anyone wants, look for it, I won’t), how many new jobs have been created over the years since then. They are, of course, being created, because new industries are opening continuously. It’s interesting to know how many of them are left to be created before 2020. Is the government solving this problem, or has it given up, relying on the handiwork of the drowning pennies.

But here it’s not enough that insurance part, as the transition progresses, it will decrease, tsk, naturally. Business is also pushing for a reduction in its share in the total volume of insurance payments, which already amounts to some 6%.
Their ombudsman has already spoken.

“Yes, pension reform is long overdue. But before increasing retirement age, it was necessary to deal with savings part pensions, which were partially stolen by non-state pension funds, were partially frozen,” Titov told reporters.

"The reform should concern the reduction of insurance payments for those people who save for themselves - and should not use their contributions to finance a pension “for that guy”. And for the older generation, who worked mainly under the USSR and did not have time to save up new Russia, the state must honestly take responsibility", - the ombudsman believes.

Let me ask this preacher of social egoism: why shouldn’t they? Actually in good form It is considered when young people realize their duty to the older generation.

As for shifting responsibility to the state, this thesis is simply false. Borusik and his business brood were the first to cling to the “not to let the National Welfare Fund” fund the pension fund, and they will hold on until there is blood under their fingernails. They also intend to develop this fund. And they are already mastering it.

Data for 2015

Who doesn't know? The National Welfare Fund (airbag) in 2013, on the initiative of the President, was “opened” for investments in the country’s internal projects, mainly infrastructure.

That's when the line formed. All that remains is to oust the Pension Fund from it. Legislatively, it cannot be squeezed out of there, because... The National Welfare Fund was initially intended to cover the deficit of the federal budget and the budget of the Pension Fund. This is clearly stated in the Budget Code.

Article 96.10. National Welfare Fund

1. The National Welfare Fund is a part of the federal budget funds that are subject to separate accounting and management in order to ensure co-financing of citizens’ voluntary pension savings Russian Federation, as well as ensuring balance (covering the deficit) of the federal budget and the budget of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation.
2. The Federal Law on the Federal Budget for the next financial year and planning period establishes the amount of funds of the National Welfare Fund allocated for the purposes specified in paragraph 1 of this article.
3. The National Welfare Fund is formed through:
   additional oil and gas revenues from the federal budget in accordance with the procedure established by the Government of the Russian Federation;
   income from managing funds of the National Welfare Fund.

To make it clear: the second source of generation of income of the National Welfare Fund is income from the management of the Fund’s funds, this, incl. and interest on long-term business loans issued for the implementation of various projects within the country. Those. It is planned to issue a lot of business loans. I have nothing against it. But.

But it turns out that business is not enough. Having finally received the right to long-term and cheap loans from the National Welfare Fund, business decided that the Pension Fund should be pushed aside from this sweet oil and gas trough. How to push back if there is a deficit in the Pension Fund Budget due to a growing cash imbalance. The increase in cash imbalance is objective, it can only be eliminated by refusing to switch to a personal savings model, and this is already sacred, you cannot encroach on the sacred. Therefore, everything must be done to avoid shortages. There will be no deficit in the pension fund budget - there will be no need to cover it, which means that business will get more.

That’s why everything that’s being done is being done for this purpose. Let everyone who is about to retire work some more. For your own good. We don't owe them anything, they say.

As a result, it turns out that business is laying its paw on both the funds of the pension fund and the funds of the National Welfare Fund.

And the generation still working, those born before 1967, help yourself - go, work for another five years, no one owes you anything.

Gentlemen, do you know what this is called? Social apartheid.

Discrimination on the basis of social status is obvious: the property rights of some sections of society are expanding at the expense of the infringement of pension rights of other sections of society.

And let us be told as much as we want about how good long-term money is, investments in long-term projects, how this contributes to sustainable economic growth, improvement of the notorious investment climate and further on the list of liberal mantras, no one needs this pasta on their ears. The stormy economic life of the country is great, but each person also has his own personal life, with his own joys, sorrows and plans for the future. Please respect.

We’ll return to the joys and benefits of business later. I want to tell you more about survival age.

Simply put, age (aka period) survival this is a time interval, the duration of which sociologists find optimal for distributing your pension savings so that your monthly pension is recognized as sufficient to support your life throughout the entire period [measured for you by the government]. What will happen next...

Operational information for 2018.

According to the report of the Ministry of Health, life expectancy at the end of 2017 in Russia increased to 72.7 years. Men: 67.51, women: 77.64.

Reference. Currently, the survival age (period) for men after 60 years is 15.96 years, and for women after 55 years - 25.62 years. Those. When calculating the size of a pension, women are based on the fact that they can live until about 80 years old, and for men - up to 76. It turns out that we can live quite well. But it's not that simple.

What will happen next... Well, despite the fact that the survival period fits well into life expectancy, the Government considers it necessary to reduce this period. Enter your life expectancy later and your personal pension fund is guaranteed to be enough to survive. And there will be a remainder, so there are heirs. Well, if you happen to live longer, then... it’s your own fault.

The survival age for men starts at 60 years old, i.e. with the average life expectancy of men being 67.51 years, the government has given him (60 + 15.96) approximately 76 years. Reserve 9.5 years (76 - 67.51). It would seem that there is no need to raise the retirement age.

After all, if the retirement age is raised to 65 years, as proposed, then the accumulative personalized model for men generally loses its meaning. Really, what a pension at 65 years old, with an average life expectancy of 67.5 years.

Yes, yes, I heard: the government is not proposing to do this now, but by 2034, when average life expectancy becomes higher. Hmm... What if it doesn't?

One can argue, of course. But what we definitely won’t have time for by 2034 is to increase it by as much as 13.5 years beyond today’s 67.51, i.e. achieve an average life expectancy of 81 years for men. This means annually increasing for almost a whole year (and even a little more). Ready?

God willing, of course. They say that fantastic breakthroughs in super technologies and improved quality of life await us. But who will carry out these breakthroughs - the old men waiting until retirement? Unemployed youth?...

What about women? But it’s a real problem with women - tenacious, bitches. If we add the government-estimated survival age to 55 (25.62), we get 80, i.e. that her pension savings will definitely be enough to reach the average 77.64 plus almost three more years.
This resource is disappearing! Ugliness. You can plow on it, but she chills at the dacha, grows flowers and enjoys life, plays patty-cake with her grandchildren.
Not allowed!
What's supposed to happen?
And as with any other long-term material asset, it’s supposed to be exploited until you’ve used up your resource, every last drop.
Go home - just lie down. For survival, as they say.
Forget about “well-deserved rest”, there is no such thing anymore.

In case anyone has forgotten: in his Address to the Federal Assembly, the President set the country the task of bringing average life expectancy to 80 years and above by the end of the next decade. Let’s get ready for this to be the explanation for the need to shift the retirement plan. These are simple ticks: if you want to live longer, work longer. The formula is not flawless, but the logic is present and it is enough to block objections.

If you object here, it is only in the language of economics - they say that long-term exploitation of the labor resource leads only to its final wear and tear, and not at all to the restoration of its original potential, and therefore life expectancy under such conditions will rather fall than increase. However, no matter what language you explain to cannibals, if they want to eat you, they don’t need arguments - they don’t talk to food.

It is clear that by reducing the survival age the government intends to solve the issue of increasing pensions. After all, if a person’s pension savings are divided into a smaller number of years, then, you see, the size of the pension seems to have increased. Well, yes: if a pie of the same size is divided not into twelve portions, but, for example, into eight, then the portions will be larger. The pie won’t add even a gram. No, well, if you are lucky and you, an old guy, are hired, then yes - the pie, on top of everything else, will also increase. Golikova promises to pay as much as a thousand a month. To each.

That is, for an increase in pension of 12.0 thousand rubles per year, you will have to work a certain number of additional years without receiving any pension.

For some reason I really wanted to ask me not to offer this deal.

It's good that I don't need it anymore.

The relevance of this statistical somersault will be felt and properly assessed by the year 2030 - 2035, when the first clients with their own pension savings and they will have to be distributed over the rest of their lives. This period of time should be less in order for the portions to be one thousand rubles per month. more.

This solves the issue of increasing social security pensioners, exclusively at the expense of the pensioners themselves.

It is appropriate to pose a question here. Will Article 39 of the Constitution (as well as Article 7), which until now guaranteed social payments on behalf of the state, also be changed or will state guarantees be understood in some other way?

Let's not speculate on the answer, I just wondered; let it remain open.

To be continued...

Gracheva R.E. (glavbushka)